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The curious conundrum of the badgers , the bovines , and the tubercle bacilli.

Pipe 1. "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. insensibly, one begins to wish facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts..."

Sherlock Holmes in A Scandal in Bohemia. Cattle TB source ruled out : - badgers getting the blame Five simplistic, tendentious solecisms; and Completely Erroneous basal Assumptions underpin badgers alleged guilt :-

  1. No Cattle Source
  2. Transmission
  3. Self-maintaining badger TB reservoir
  4. Culls Work
  5. Supplementary Reaffirmation
Pipe 2. "The curious case of the dogs which failed to bark in the night "

On the contrary, Watson, you can see everything. you fail, however, to reason from what you see. you are too timid in drawing inferences ." Sherlock Holmes in The Adventure of the Blue Carbuncle. Badgers cannot possibly be the problem : - As regards the three core indictments above:

  1. Transmission, 2. Self-perpetuation, 3. Cull effects .
  2. Transmission : - Cattle Consumption vs Badger Scrofula
  3. Self-Maintaining TB Reservoir
  4. Culls work or make things worse ?
Pipe 3 ."When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of Four; Also, The Adventure of the Beryl Coronet. Badger TB source ruled out :- so it must be cows after all !

The Cornerstone Initial Assumption of the whole debate; Ruling out a Cattle source is based on two simply wrong pivotal ideas : only Open lesion cattle infectious / and NVL no visible lesion reactors are false positive (like up to 14 % with M. avium, hence EC derogation to GB & Ireland to use Comparative Skin Test). RE-appraising these twin errors :

  1. 1. Transmission
  2. Hidden Cattle TB Reservoir
Figure 3