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"Logical " Absurdity

"Logical " Absurdity X 2

1. no-one after 42 years research has shown how badgers might realistically give cows a respiratory lung infection ( it is 100 % from prolonged contact with other cows over-wintering in barns ..Even in the very artificial badger / calf yard experiment 8 out of 12 calves took 6-10 months to become reactors, 4 exposed under 1 months apparently did NOT catch TB : Little 1982).

2. all the scientific experts have been bamboozled into the "new religion" of culls causing perturbation and increasing spread to cows... but despite this being in peer reviewed science, amidst the tsunami/avalanche of statistics from ISG, no-one has noticed ... it is hilariously silly pure nonsense ...in figure below, how on earth can badgers immigrating into cull area cause cattle tb rise outside it !!!???

1. Getting the blame

Cattle are the beautifully co-adapted Natural Host of the obligate parasitic infectious disease of bovine TB (Mycobacterium bovis); each infectious cow (SEE left pyramid above) producing several new cases within the herd; then these being exported to a random scatter of new breakdowns, so TB is self-maintaining , and indeed expansionist within the long lived social herd cattle population. GB's Textbook Area Eradication cattle controls scheme shrank the problem from country-wide to a tiny archipelago of intractable"island" southwest "hotspots" Maps 1 to 2 above. UNBELIEVABLY, then ( and 100 % WRONGLY) ; since there did not SEEM to be any overt ongoing infectIOUS cattle source, the high density badger population got the blame as the intractable self-sustaining hidden reservoir : - BUT there has been a "Hidden" Cattle reservoir all along composed of Core problem herds spreading so-called Unconfirmed "False positive" Actually TRUE early TB cases; SEE Iceberg above.

2. Cattle "Consumption" vs Badger "Scrofula"

No-one after 42 years research has shown how badgers might realistically give cattle a respiratory lung "Consumption" or Phthisis" ; spread by aerosol of "sputum" droplet infection as in humans (think swine flu) , but prolonged contact over-wintering in barns needed to ensure transmission. Badgers popping into a barn for a drink and snack of cattle nuts WONT work. And whilst cattle can catch avian TB by ingestion ( lesions in lymph nodes round mouth and gut), a cow would need to drink 2 ml of badger urine to achieve the minimum dose of 1 million bacilli By Mouth ( 300,000 bacill / ml , most urine drains straight into soil, rest diluted by rain/ dew, disinfected within days by UV in sunlight).

Cattle and humans formerly got "Scrofula" via unpasteurised milk, tonsils spread to throat nodes .. some 70 % of badgers first shown to catch TB via lymph nodes under tongue (submandibulars), as shown in Tony Meeuwissen's elegant badger cowpat scenario above. Badger TB is hence "SCROFULA"; caught after all from cows ; then to lung and kidney by secondary metastisizing spread.

Absolutely nil evidence badgers can actually give cows TB, they're merely catching it from cows.

3. Non-Existent Badger TB Reservoir

There is Emphatically no widespread self-perpetuating "High Risk" reservoir of badger TB "Out There". Even in the supposedly textbook example of endemic TB in DEFRA's Woodchester Park Glos. study area, TB is only present as incredibly small "Micropockets" in a few badger clans as spillover victims at the epicentre of TB herd outbreaks , just as shown by the Clean Ring badger culls 1982-6.

Incredibly few infectious "Superexcretor" badgers, which MIGHT be a risk to other badgers or cows; so TB dying out in social groups when not topped up from cattle. In the first 14 years of intensive sampling, in 22 clans in 7 sq.km., there were ONLY 17 superexcretors. SO, The Dog which Failed to Bark in the Night .. dozens of research papers on Woodchester since 1975, DO NOT RECORD A SINGLE HERD BREAKDOWN FROM THIS "High Risk" Pseudo-endemic TB badger population !

The RBCT cull of 11,000 badgers found just 166 superexcretors (ISG 2007, p. 77).

4. Culls Work Or Make Things Worse : - The Great Badger Perturbation Fantasy

The proposed Pilot culls and Welsh IAA vaccine trials arise from the DEFRA 2010 Consultation (Annex B, para. 20); and cherry picked "evidence" from the RBCT study. HOWEVER, what the ISG 2007 Report actually showed "in the small print" was that there was NIL Effect of culls on accumulated herd breakdowns as regards :-

A. localised reactive areas , p. 243;
B. on breakdowns in proactive widespread cull areas ; either on Unconfirmed breakdowns p. 96, 101; OR
C. Confirmed breakdowns .. a net alleged prevention of just 1.4 breakdowns / 100 sq.km. p. 103.

" Logical Absurdity X 2 .. The Great Perturbation myth suggests badgers perturbed by culls have more contact with/ and spread of TB to cows in both Reactive / Proactive outside areas ... BUT :-

Reactive Rise happened before the cull so just daft to say it was due to the cull even in peer reviewed journals ISG p. 109; it happened in area J not culled; and in no-cull areas too; and was due to imported cattle with different DNA spoligotype to resident badgers ( DEFRA SE 3108 & Macdonald 2006); ProactivE Rise .. even though everyone has swallowed this idea as the new Gospel Religion ; it is hilariously silly to imagine that perturbed badger territories INSIDE the cull area; plus badger immigrating into cull vacuum .. Can Unbelievably somehow cause the 42 % rise in outside ring .. SEE Donought Figure above, first 500 m. showed a drop in TB anyway.

No Meaningful Contribution.. Even if the net beneficial/ detrimental effects of a 150 sq.km. cull DID prevent 46 out of an expected 292 breakdowns After 9 years, as in Consultation .. it obviously would never be worth rolling out to further TB hotspot micropockets .. ALL Spectacularly Pointless given that there are some 7-8000 herds under TB restriction / a; up to 40,000 reactors / a ; in an Area of c. HALF GB ( SEE Map 4 above ).

VERY HARD to see why farmers are signing up for such costly imaginary miniscule rewards , and a disgrace that this Mindless further cull/ vaccine pilots are endorsed by assorted : - politicians eg EFRA Committee 2013 vaccine report / scientific advisers who ratified the Consultation idea , others willing to be used as political pawns to "Monitor" this "Scientific" trial; and Natural England being willing to issue licences for it all : - The Lunatics are Running the Asylum ! ??

5. Cattle Crisis

Rise from 1979 low of 89 herds & 600 reactors in c. 1000 sq.km. "islands" Map 2 .. to current "Out of Control" Cattle TB; boosted by Mad Cow replacements peaking 1993 ; then lack of testing during foot & mouth 2001; has SIMPLY BEEN UNCONTROLLED SPREAD WITHIN THE CATTLE POPULATION ; Absolutely nothing to do with Old Brock !!.

NB . Since FMD out of c. 340, 000 cattle removed, some 200, 000 UNCONFIRMED reactors, which DO have TB .. A Huge hidden reservoir (Iceberg above.. 85 % in 1994 were unconfirmed breakdowns spreading back into areas TB free 20 years or more). Out of Control figures for early 2013, "proving" need for a badger cull are simply result of bringing 10 fringing counties back into annual testing (October 2012 statement, bar areas in Map 4 ).

Figure 4